The 2027 Calder Trophy race already has a pretty wild feel to it.
Usually, when you look at rookie odds this early, there is one clear name sitting above everyone else. This time, it looks much tighter. Porter Martone, Gavin McKenna, and Ivar Stenberg all have real arguments, and each one brings a completely different storyline.
Right now, the odds have Porter Martone at +230, Gavin McKenna at +240, and Ivar Stenberg at +700.
That tells you two things right away.
The sportsbooks see Martone and McKenna as almost a toss-up, and Stenberg is sitting in that dangerous “don’t forget about me” range.
Porter Martone Has The Best Calder Setup
Martone being the favourite makes sense.
He is with the Philadelphia Flyers, and that could matter a lot. Calder winners usually need two things: opportunity and attention. Martone should get both.
Philadelphia is the kind of market where a young player can become a story fast. If he gets top-six minutes, power-play time, and starts producing early, he could quickly become one of the biggest rookie names in the league.
There is also the style factor. Martone plays the kind of game that gets noticed. He has size, skill, confidence, and enough edge to make highlights without needing to score every night.
That matters in an award race.
The Calder is not always just about points. It is also about impact. If Martone looks like a future franchise piece in Philadelphia, voters are going to pay attention.
Gavin McKenna Might Be The Most Talented Name Here
Let’s be honest: Gavin McKenna at +240 is tempting.
McKenna has the kind of offensive talent that can completely blow up a Calder race if everything clicks. If he is playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, the spotlight will be massive. Every point, every goal, every big shift will get talked about.
That can help him. It can also make things harder.
Toronto is not a quiet place to develop. If McKenna starts hot, the hype will be insane. If he has a slow first month, the pressure will be just as loud.
Still, pure skill might give him the highest ceiling of anyone on the board. If this turns into a points race, McKenna could absolutely win it.
The Leafs angle only adds more juice. A young star coming into that market and immediately producing? That would be one of the biggest stories in hockey.
Ivar Stenberg Is The Sneaky Value Pick
Then there is Ivar Stenberg at +700 with the San Jose Sharks.
This is where the race gets interesting.
Stenberg is not getting the same betting respect as Martone or McKenna, but that does not mean he is out of it. In fact, San Jose could be a really good place for a rookie to break through.
The Sharks are still building, which means young players can get real minutes. Stenberg may not need to fight through a veteran-heavy lineup the same way he might on a contender.
That opportunity could turn him into a much bigger factor than the odds suggest.
At +700, he feels like the classic value pick. Not the safest bet, but maybe the one that looks a lot smarter if he gets power-play time and puts up numbers early.
So Who Wins It?
Right now, my pick would be Porter Martone.
McKenna might have the flashier offensive ceiling, and Stenberg could end up being the best value play, but Martone feels like the most complete Calder candidate.
He has the name recognition, the team fit, the physical tools, and the type of game that can stand out even when he is not piling up points. If he becomes a major piece for the Flyers right away, this award could be his to lose.
That said, this race feels close.
If McKenna walks into Toronto and starts producing like a future superstar, the Calder conversation could flip quickly. And if Stenberg gets big minutes in San Jose, +700 may look disrespectful later.
For now, though, the safest call is simple:
Porter Martone is the early Calder Trophy favourite — and he deserves to be.
