By HockeyGamedayTV | October 14, 2026
Two weeks ago, every other NHL team passed on Dylan Garand. Now the 24-year-old is being asked to replace one of hockey’s most accomplished goaltenders. His early statistics suggest the New York Rangers may have something special — but is he ready to carry the crease all season?
On September 28, Garand cleared waivers and headed to the Hartford Wolf Pack. He had spent four full seasons developing in the American Hockey League and looked destined for another year of waiting.
Then backup Joonas Korpisalo was injured and Garand was recalled. On October 9, Igor Shesterkin suffered a serious lower-body injury against Washington; the following day, the Rangers confirmed their Vezina Trophy-winning goaltender would miss the remainder of the 2026–27 season. What had been an uncertain roster situation became a defining professional opportunity.
Garand has responded by winning all three of his starts this season. Now the debate in New York is whether the Rangers have uncovered a legitimate starter — or whether a promising opening stretch is being mistaken for a long-term solution.
The numbers: an almost unbelievable start
Through October 13, Garand’s traditional numbers are eye-catching. His 3–1–0 record includes a loss charged to him during a relief appearance against Washington; he remains unbeaten in his three starts.
| 2026–27 NHL statistic | Through Oct. 13 |
|---|---|
| Games / starts | 4 / 3 |
| Record | 3–1–0 |
| Save percentage | .951 |
| Goals-against average | 1.15 |
| Shots / saves | 81 / 77 |
| Goals against | 4 |
| Shutouts | 1 |
Source: Garand 2026–27 game log and Rangers postgame notes, Oct. 13.
His first NHL shutout came October 2 in Detroit, where he stopped all 22 shots in a 2–0 win. His first start following Shesterkin’s injury brought a 6–2 victory over Vancouver on October 11. Then, against Tampa Bay on October 13, Garand made 25 saves in a 4–1 win that helped New York improve to 6–2–0 overall and 5–0–0 at Madison Square Garden.
The official Rangers postgame notes placed Garand’s .951 save percentage and 1.15 goals-against average second in the league among goaltenders with at least four starts at that point. Those are elite-looking numbers, even if the sample is still tiny.
Advanced analytics: is he saving more goals than expected?
Wins and goals-against average alone cannot tell us whether a goalie is playing exceptionally well or benefiting from a team that limits dangerous chances. To examine the difference, we can look at goals saved above expected (GSAx), which compares actual goals allowed with a shot-quality model’s projected goals against.
According to LivingHockey’s goaltending model, through Garand’s first three appearances of this season, ending October 11:
| Advanced metric | Result through Oct. 11 |
|---|---|
| Expected goals against (xGA) | 5.20 |
| Actual goals against | 3 |
| Goals saved above expected (GSAx) | +2.20 |
| High-danger shots faced | 12 |
| High-danger goals allowed | 0 |
| High-danger save percentage | 1.000 |
| Medium-danger save percentage | .917 |
Important cutoff: these modeled advanced statistics were available through October 11 and do not include the October 13 Tampa Bay game. Models can also disagree on which shots count as high danger and on the resulting expected-goal totals.
Put simply: LivingHockey estimated that a league-average goaltender facing the same chances would have allowed approximately 5.2 goals. Garand allowed three, outperforming that expectation by 2.2 goals. He also stopped all 12 chances classified as high danger by the model.
That provides an encouraging signal that Garand has contributed real value beyond the scoreboard. But it is not proof that he will maintain these rates for an entire season. Twelve high-danger attempts and three appearances are far too small a sample for that conclusion.
A promising pattern from last season
Interestingly, the numbers were already strong during his first three NHL appearances in 2025–26. He went 2–0–1 with a .948 save percentage and 1.62 GAA; LivingHockey credits him with +5.59 GSAx in that three-game sample.
Across those three appearances and the three 2026–27 appearances reflected in the model through October 11, Garand therefore accumulated a combined +7.79 GSAx. That is encouraging early evidence, not a definitive projection of his ceiling.
Who is Dylan Garand? A development story with highs and lows
Garand, born in Victoria, British Columbia, was selected 103rd overall by New York in the fourth round of the 2020 NHL Draft. He was named the Canadian Hockey League’s Goaltender of the Year in 2021–22, helped Canada win World Junior gold in 2022, and later developed with Hartford.
He was an AHL All-Star in 2024–25, but his minor-league statistics also show why the Rangers were cautious about promoting him permanently.
| Hartford AHL season | Wins | Save % | GAA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024–25 | 20 | .913 | 2.73 |
| 2025–26 | 16 | .896 | 2.83 |
That step backward in save percentage matters. The Rangers should not ignore it simply because Garand is on a winning streak in October. However, he has also produced some excellent postseason work: in 17 career Calder Cup playoff games, he owns a .927 save percentage, 2.21 GAA and two shutouts.
Those numbers, reported in Hartford’s June 2026 contract announcement, reveal a goalie who has demonstrated both significant upside and stretches of inconsistency. New York re-signed him to a two-year extension in June, even though the arrival of Korpisalo ultimately pushed him behind two established options on the opening depth chart.
What Garand and Mike Sullivan are saying
After the October 2 shutout in Detroit — only days after being waived and sent to Hartford — Garand summed up the speed of his turnaround:
“This has been the craziest week of my life.” — Dylan Garand
His reaction was understandable: he had gone from clearing waivers to stopping 22 NHL shots in a shutout in less than a week. NHL.com reported the postgame remarks.
Following Shesterkin’s injury, Garand spoke about his commitment to the team and city, saying he was excited for the opportunity and would give everything to help his teammates win. He acknowledged the injury was difficult news for a group that relies heavily on Shesterkin.
Coach Mike Sullivan has repeatedly stressed Garand’s competitiveness and ability to deliver timely saves. After the win over Tampa Bay, Sullivan said:
“I’m thrilled for Dylan.” — Mike Sullivan
Sullivan went on to praise how well Garand had played, emphasizing those timely saves. Garand, meanwhile, said he was focused on taking each day as it comes, stopping pucks and battling whenever the coaches call on him. Read more of the Rangers’ comments through NHL.com.
The moment Madison Square Garden embraced him
The biggest indicator of fan support may have come Tuesday night, when the home crowd chanted Garand’s name.
Garand later acknowledged that the chants felt unusual because those cheers are typically reserved for Shesterkin, but said the support meant a great deal to him. For a goalie who was on waivers a fortnight earlier, it was a major emotional milestone.
That does not mean Rangers fans universally believe he is a full-season No. 1. What it does mean is that Garand has already given the Garden a reason to rally behind him.
A statistical connection to Rangers goaltending history
Garand now has five career wins in six NHL starts. According to New York’s official game notes, he matched Igor Shesterkin and Cam Talbot for the fewest starts needed to reach five wins with the Rangers.
That is a terrific early milestone, especially in an organization associated with Mike Richter, Henrik Lundqvist and Shesterkin. It is also just that: a milestone. It does not place Garand on the same level as those franchise goaltenders.
The Talbot comparison is particularly interesting. When Lundqvist was sidelined during the 2014–15 season, Talbot helped New York maintain its momentum. Garand now has a chance to provide a similar kind of stability — although the scale and duration of this assignment remain unknown.
The hidden challenge: replacing more than Shesterkin’s save percentage
It would be a mistake to judge Garand entirely by whether he duplicates Shesterkin’s raw save percentage. Shesterkin also impacts New York’s breakouts through his puck-handling, reads and communication with defensemen.
With Garand in net, the Rangers may need to adjust how defenders retrieve dump-ins, where they offer passing outlets and how aggressively they try to exit the zone. The stronger the team structure, the easier it becomes for a young goalie to handle a heavier workload.
New York’s 6–2–0 start and 5–0–0 home record provide a favorable environment. But over an 84-game regular season, opponents will adjust, shots will become more dangerous, and Garand will inevitably face difficult stretches. A franchise-level goaltender is often defined not by his best week but by how he responds to those stretches.
Should Chris Drury trade for a veteran?
There are compelling reasons on both sides.
Why New York should trust Garand
- He has won all three starts this season, including a shutout.
- His early GSAx suggests he has saved more goals than the model expected.
- He is already familiar with the team, coaches and organizational approach.
- A costly trade for a veteran starter could sacrifice assets before the Rangers learn what they have.
Why the Rangers should add experience
- Six career NHL starts are nowhere near enough to project full-season reliability.
- His previous AHL campaign finished with an .896 save percentage.
- Both original NHL goaltenders have suffered injuries, leaving little margin for another setback.
- A veteran backup could give Sullivan more options and protect Garand from an unnecessarily heavy workload.
The smartest compromise may be to give Garand the crease now while actively evaluating affordable veteran depth. New York does not have to declare him the permanent answer — or replace him immediately — to manage the risk responsibly.
HockeyGamedayTV verdict: has he earned the trust of Rangers fans?
Yes, for now. Not yet for an entire season.
Garand has already earned genuine recognition. The waiver wire did not end his story; it led to an improbable opportunity. His first three starts have been wins, his early expected-goals numbers are positive, and the Madison Square Garden crowd is beginning to embrace him.
What remains unproven is endurance. Can he make adjustments as teams scout him? Can he handle a starter’s workload? Can he continue stealing timely saves when the Rangers are not controlling the game?
Those answers will be written over weeks and months, not four appearances.
Two weeks ago, the other 31 NHL teams passed on Dylan Garand. Now the New York Rangers are handing him their season. From waivers to Broadway, the pressure is enormous — and the opportunity is even bigger.
Rangers fans: team Garand or team veteran?
If you were general manager Chris Drury, would you let Dylan Garand lead New York until Shesterkin returns next season — or trade for an established veteran right now? Tell us what you would do.
Reporting and statistical sources: New York Rangers game notes, NHL.com, Hartford Wolf Pack, LivingHockey, and StatMuse. Current to October 13, 2026 unless otherwise specified.
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