For days, the hockey world saw only the final number.

Five years. $90 million. An $18-million cap hit.

What nobody knew was just how close Leo Carlsson’s camp came to taking a completely different path — or how quickly the market exploded once NHL teams were allowed to contact the young Anaheim Ducks star.

In a special edition of the 32 Thoughts Podcast, Elliotte Friedman sat down with Carlsson’s agents, Matt and Ryan Keator, for a detailed look at the negotiations that produced the richest annual contract in NHL history.

The interview cleared up one major misconception immediately: the Ducks did not ignore Carlsson or refuse to negotiate.

Anaheim tried hard to sign him.

Carlsson’s representatives simply believed waiting would produce something much bigger.

Anaheim Offered Carlsson $84 Million Before the Season

According to the Keators, Ducks general manager Pat Verbeek offered Carlsson an eight-year, $84-million extension before the season began.

That would have paid him $10.5 million annually and guaranteed him $84 million before his 21st birthday.

Most players would have signed it without hesitation.

Carlsson’s agents rejected it.

Matt Keator explained that Anaheim remained aggressive throughout September and October, but the agency wanted more time to study where the NHL’s rapidly changing contract market was going.

The salary cap was rising. Star salaries were climbing with it. Every major extension was establishing a new comparable for the players coming next.

The Keators believed that locking Carlsson into an eight-year contract at $10.5 million could eventually make him one of the league’s most underpaid superstars.  

That decision carried real risk.

Carlsson still needed to stay healthy and continue developing. A disappointing season could have cost him millions. Instead, he delivered career highs with 29 goals, 38 assists and 67 points in 70 games, strengthening his position before entering restricted free agency.  

The Connor Bedard Contract Was Supposed to Set the Market

Carlsson’s camp originally wanted to see what happened with Connor Bedard.

Bedard’s next contract was expected to reset the market for elite young players, and the Keators believed his number could provide a powerful comparison in negotiations with Anaheim.

That plan did not survive the opening hours of free agency.

The market came directly to Carlsson.

“At 12:04 a.m.,” the agents said, one team sent a message asking whether they were still awake and ready to talk.

By the end of the day, seven or eight teams had contacted Carlsson’s representatives. Four were reportedly prepared to make genuine offers, and the field was eventually reduced to two serious possibilities.  

That detail changes the entire story.

Philadelphia was not the only club willing to test Anaheim. Carlsson was one of the most aggressively pursued restricted free agents the NHL has seen in years.

Friedman had previously reported that another team was considering an offer worth approximately $17.5 million annually over seven years. He also reported that Anaheim’s final proposal before the offer sheet was believed to be somewhere between $12 million and $13 million per season.  

The Ducks had improved their position significantly from the original $10.5-million offer.

It still was not enough.

Anaheim Was Told Something Was Coming

Carlsson’s agents said the Ducks were kept aware of what was happening.

As the outside interest became serious, the Keators informed Anaheim that teams were prepared to make offers and that they had narrowed the process down to two finalists.

However, Anaheim apparently was not given the exact financial terms of Philadelphia’s offer before Carlsson signed it.

Verbeek had already made his position clear: the Ducks intended to match any offer sheet.

That may explain why negotiations never moved into a final bidding war. Anaheim believed it could retain Carlsson regardless of what another team offered.

The problem was that nobody expected the number to reach $18 million.

Friedman wrote that Verbeek may have anticipated an offer in the $15-million range. Philadelphia went far beyond that, constructing a deal designed not merely to pressure the Ducks, but to give the Flyers a legitimate chance of landing the player.  

Carlsson Was Reportedly Speechless

When the Flyers presented the five-year, $90-million offer, Carlsson’s reaction was not immediate celebration.

His agents said he was speechless.

The contract was not only enormous in total value. Its structure made it even more attractive.

According to the Keators, the agreement was heavily front-loaded and almost entirely paid through signing bonuses. That meant Carlsson would receive much of the money earlier, giving him greater financial security and the ability to invest it immediately.

Matt Keator compared it to The Godfather: Philadelphia had made Carlsson an offer he could not refuse.  

Carlsson did not sign right away, however.

His camp reportedly waited approximately two days while he considered the decision. For a 21-year-old who genuinely wanted to remain in Anaheim, signing an offer sheet was not simply a financial calculation. It meant accepting the possibility that he could become a Flyer.

His father, Kenneth, eventually became directly involved.

According to the agents’ podcast account, Carlsson’s father believed the proposal was too good to pass up and pushed the family toward accepting it. The decision was life-changing, and Carlsson’s representatives felt the combination of guaranteed money, signing bonuses and contract length made rejecting it unreasonable.  

Carlsson Wanted Anaheim to Match

Signing the offer sheet did not mean Carlsson wanted out.

After Anaheim matched, Carlsson said the deal was one that almost anyone would have signed, but made it clear that his preference was still to remain with the Ducks.

“I really wanted to be here,” Carlsson said after the decision. “I really wanted them to match. I want to be an Anaheim Duck.”  

That is an important distinction.

This was not a trade request. It was not a breakdown in Carlsson’s relationship with the organization. It was a young player using the rights available to him under the collective bargaining agreement.

Carlsson could love Anaheim and still sign a contract worth $90 million.

Both things can be true.

The Ducks Had No Real Choice

Had Anaheim declined to match, the Ducks would have received four first-round draft picks from Philadelphia.

That is a massive package, but draft picks are not guaranteed to become franchise centres. Carlsson had already shown that he could be one.

Verbeek had identified him as Anaheim’s preferred player immediately after landing the second selection in the 2023 NHL Draft. Allowing him to leave three years later would have set the organization’s rebuild back dramatically.  

The Ducks therefore matched the five-year, $90-million offer one day before the deadline.

The agreement runs through the 2030-31 season and makes Carlsson an unrestricted free agent upon its completion. Anaheim also cannot trade him for one year after matching the offer sheet.  

Ducks ownership described matching as an easy decision, saying the organization had deliberately maintained enough cap flexibility to retain its franchise player. Verbeek similarly said it had always been Anaheim’s intention to match any offer Carlsson signed.  

Easy decision or not, it was an extraordinarily expensive one.

Philadelphia May Have Changed the NHL Contract Market

The biggest consequence may extend far beyond Anaheim.

Teams once believed they held nearly all the leverage over young restricted free agents. Carlsson’s deal proved that an aggressive opponent with cap space and draft capital can completely destroy that advantage.

Friedman described the offer sheet as something that changed the business of hockey.

Future young stars will now use Carlsson’s $18-million cap hit as a comparison. Players who are not quite at his level may still argue that they deserve $14 million or $15 million. Players considered better could demand even more.  

The deal also creates immediate challenges for Anaheim.

Cutter Gauthier is not currently eligible to sign an offer sheet, but he is coming off a 41-goal season. Beckett Sennecke produced 60 points as a rookie. Pavel Mintyukov has also required a new contract.

Every young Ducks player now knows what the market was willing to pay Carlsson.  

That does not mean they will all receive similar money, but it changes the starting point of every negotiation.

This Was a Win for Carlsson — and a Warning for Everyone Else

Carlsson got the money, the contract structure and the opportunity to remain with the organization he wanted to play for.

Philadelphia did not get the player, but the Flyers forced a rival to absorb an $18-million cap hit and announced that they are willing to use every available method to acquire elite talent.

Anaheim kept its franchise centre, but paid a price few people believed was possible when negotiations began.

The biggest lesson is simple.

When the Ducks offered Carlsson $84 million, it looked like a fortune.

His agents believed the market would offer more, accepted the risk and waited.

They were right.

Carlsson ultimately received $6 million more in total guaranteed money, three fewer years of commitment and a path to unrestricted free agency at only 26 years old.

That is not merely a successful negotiation.

It may be the contract that permanently changed how the NHL’s best young players handle restricted free agency.

You can listen to the podcast in full here: